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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.