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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."